Journal article
Using QALYs as an Outcome for Assessing Global Prediction Accuracy in Diabetes Simulation Models
HA Dakin, N Gao, J Leal, RR Holman, A Tran-Duy, P Clarke
Medical decision making | SAGE Publications | Published : 2025
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: (1) To demonstrate the use of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) as an outcome measure for comparing performance between simulation models and identifying the most accurate model for economic evaluation and health technology assessment. QALYs relate directly to decision making and combine mortality and diverse clinical events into a single measure using evidence-based weights that reflect population preferences. (2) To explore the usefulness of Q2, the proportional reduction in error, as a model performance metric and compare it with other metrics: mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute error, bias (mean residual), and R2. METHODS: We simulated all EXSCEL trial participants (..
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Grants
Awarded by Amylin Pharmaceuticals
Funding Acknowledgements
The authors disclosed receipt of the following financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article: Financial support for this study was provided by the Medical Research Council (MR/T018593/1) and also supported by the NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre. HAD was partly funded by the National Institute of Health Research Oxford Biomedical Research Centre while this research was conducted. JL acknowledges support from the Innovative Medicines Initiative 2 Joint Undertaking under grant agreement No 115881 (RHAPSODY). RRH is an Emeritus National Institute for Health Research senior investigator. AT-D is partly funded by the Australian Centre for Accelerating Diabetes Innovations (ACADI) and Methods and Implementation Support for Clinical and Health research (MISCH) Hub. PC is partly supported by funding from the NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre (BRC) and the Health Foundation. EXSCEL (Exenatide Study of Cardiovascular Event Lowering) was sponsored and funded by Amylin Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of AstraZeneca. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NIHR or the Department of Health and Social Care. The funding agreement ensured the authors'independence in designing the study, interpreting the data, writing, and publishing the report.